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The industry believes that the purchase restriction policy is moving toward a wider range, and the property prices in the second and third tier cities may cool down significantly in the future, and will prompt the arrival of â€œinflection pointsâ€ in housing prices nationwide.
Restricted purchase list affecting the property market enthusiasm for investment decline Assault selling frequency Some current second- and third-tier citiesâ€™ property markets have used the â€œunlimited purchaseâ€ signage and the scenery is infinite, but now investment demand has begun to fall into a wait-and-see attitude. Some ordinary citizens are even worried that the housing prices will fall sharply after purchase, which will make the surprise strike. The situation of selling a house occurs frequently in some cities.
At home in Liuzhou, Jiangsu Province, Aunt Liu finally decided to sell a small house in the first two days. Because she was afraid that the purchaser could not find the order after the local restriction, she was still afraid of a sharp drop in house prices. She rushed to sell the house and the total price was reduced by 20,000 yuan from the previous listing price.
The industry believes that once the purchase limit is imposed, the real estate bubble in the second and third tier cities is more likely to break down. Some ordinary citizens are therefore worried that prices will fall sharply. Many people who own more than one house will choose to sell their houses and pack their bags safely.
In Ordos, Inner Mongolia, the real estate market that ran wild for several years was just like â€œhaving no place on the heightsâ€. In the first two months, some local real estate developments have been slow-moving, and the current situation of unsalable sales has become increasingly severe. Many real estate properties have been traded on the same day with zero sales, and even after the opening week, they can only sell several sets of sporadic sales. Complex existence.
Yantai City, Shandong Province has been sought after by many frontline real estate speculators, Vanke, China Shipping, Poly, China Construction, etc. have rushed around in Yantai, housing prices have risen. After the purchase restriction policy continued to be overweight, some brand developers settled in Yantai were very embarrassed, and the investment in sea-view real estate, which mainly consisted of investors, began to be cold. Due to fears that house prices will decline after purchase restrictions, investors generally hold a wait-and-see attitude.
According to Zhu Jiang, general manager of the local real estate agency in Shanghai, the World Bankâ€™s general manager, Zhu Jiang stated that the second- and third-tier cities mentioned by the State Council should be cities with relatively large economic aggregates and a relatively mature real estate market. Shandong Zibo, Yantai, Weifang and Linyi Such as meet this standard. If the purchase limit of the property market expands, Yantai is most likely to be selected.
In Weifang City, Shandong Province, the newly-emerged groups still face calm in the face of possible purchase restrictions. After 80 years, young people said that even if the purchase is restricted, it will have no effect on people who just need it. However, local investment demand has begun to shift, and some powerful multi-home buyers have begun to consider commercial real estate.
Lu Wencheng, deputy general manager of Weifang, a local developer of Weifang, said that Weifang's housing prices rose more noticeably in the first half of the year, with a conservative estimate of around 15%, which is due to the rapid rise in house prices. The 100-city price index of Chinaâ€™s real estate index system shows that Weifangâ€™s housing price increase has been among the top 100 cities in the country in the first half of the year, and Weifang is likely to be included in the list of restricted cities.
The recent housing price increase in Qinhuangdao City, Hebei Province is alarming. In June, the price of newly-built commercial housing prices rose by the second time in the country. Local intermediaries in Hebei said that the high-end projects listed in Qinhuangdao in the first half of the year were concentrated and many of them were resort-type properties. Investment demand from Beijing and Tianjin was more demanding, pushing up the average price of newly built commercial housing. After comprehensive data for the past six months, the person said that Tangshan and Qinhuangdao, with their price increases in Hebei Province becoming more apparent, are likely to be included in this round of purchase restrictions.
Since the introduction of the "restriction order" in first-tier cities and some second- and third-tier cities earlier this year, the property market has been in a downturn, and the crowded out funds have begun to seek new investment channels. Some cities that have not purchased cities have attracted speculative funds. At present, Yantai City, the new disk prices exceeded 7,000 yuan / square meter, Ordos, Hohhot, Baotou, the average price reached 6,892 yuan / square meter, 5907 yuan / square meter, 5,431 yuan / square meter, the average price of real estate in Yulin City, Shaanxi Province reached 6000 Yuan/square meter, part of the newly opened real estate price in Tangshan, Hebei, also exceeded the yuan/square meter mark.
In the second and third tier cities, whether or not the restrictions on purchase and purchase execution have caused significant differences in housing prices in different regions. The 100-city price index of the China Real Estate Index System shows that the average price of residential buildings in 100 cities across the country was 8,856 yuan per square meter in June, up 0.41% from the previous month. In June, the city's residential prices were higher than the previous month, with Zhengzhou, Changchun, Weifang, Luoyang, Xinxiang, Zibo, and Lanzhou, both rising from 2% to 3%. The cities with the highest growth rates in the chain are mostly second- and third-tier cities that have not purchased restrictions.
Two targets or purchase restrictions will limit the purchase price to an immediate point of view. The inflection point is expected to be close to industry sources, saying that a new round of city purchases is likely to result from these cities, which have experienced year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter growth. In the process of drafting a list of newly-restricted cities, in addition to the increase in house prices, it is also possible to refer to the increase in investment in real estate development.
The first batch of cities that have implemented â€œrestricted purchase ordersâ€ are mainly municipalities directly under the Central Government, cities with separate plans, capital cities in the provincial capital, and other hot-spot cities where house prices have risen rapidly. According to Centaline Property statistics, there are currently 41 cities in the country that have issued restrictions on purchase orders, including four municipalities in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, 26 provincial capital cities, and five cities in Dalian, Ningbo, Xiamen, Qingdao, and Shenzhen. And six hot-spot cities such as Wuxi, Suzhou, Sanya and Foshan.
According to the analysis of Centaline Property of Beijing, according to the National Real Estate Newly Built Commercial Residential Index, the average value of the cities in which purchases were limited increased by 4.04% year-on-year, and that of non-restricted cities rose by an average of 4.89%. The increase in house prices in the restricted- purchase cities was lower than that in non-restricted cities. The trading volume in the restricted cities has shrunk significantly, and speculative investment demand has been significantly squeezed out of the market. It is expected that the restricted cities may add more than one hundred. The research report released by Chain Home Real Estate believes that compared with first-tier cities, the regulatory pressure in the second and third-tier cities is relatively small. It is expected that at least 20 second-tier cities will be included in the purchase list in the future.
According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, 29 cities in newly built commercial housing increased by more than 5% in June. It is noteworthy that these 29 cities are all second- and third-tier cities, such as the 9.3% year-on-year increase in new commercial housing in Urumqi, Qinhuangdao The year-on-year increase was 8.6%, and both Nanchang and Lanzhou increased 8.4% year-on-year. In June, there were 5 cities with newly-increased commercial residential quarters, which rose 0.4% month-on-month, including Shenyang, Changsha, Yinchuan, Urumqi and Zunyi. These cities are second- and third-tier cities that are not restricted or whose policies are not strictly enforced.
Chen Guoqiang, the vice president of the China Real Estate Association, believes that although the specific scope of the second-tier and third-tier cities has not yet been announced, the new restrictions will certainly have an impact on the local market and will have an immediate effect of curbing demand.
Zhang Dawei, research director of Beijing Centaline Real Estate Market, said that once occupying the second and third tier cities in the current market, the sale of real estate may be significantly reduced in the second half of the year, and the expected downward adjustment may exceed 20%. If fully implemented, the sales area in the second half of the year is likely to be less than 400 million square meters, and the inventory backlog will rise significantly. If the tightening of national restrictions on purchases is tightened, it is expected that changes in the market from volume to price will show up in the third quarter.
Developers' sales strategy Affected housing enterprises â€œgranaryâ€ fear of reducing production Fourth-tier citiesâ€™ purchase restrictions The purchase of second- and third-tier cities may have already taken immediate advantage, which is tantamount to a major disadvantage for the developers of second- and third-tier cities.
In the first half of this year, the sales area of â€‹â€‹Evergrande ranked first in the nation's housing prices, mainly from deep plowing in the second and third-tier cities. Vanke, China Shipping, Poly, Goldland and other large-scale developers have long been strategically focused on the vast second and third-tier cities. The top ten real estate companies with sales in the first half of the year are characterized by higher turnover rates than their peers and a more complete national distribution. A considerable number of projects are located in second-tier cities and even third- and fourth-tier cities.
Han Shitong, a well-known real estate expert, believes that once the restriction policy spreads to the second and third tier cities, it will cause the local real estate market to settle down. Brand developers can only adapt to the situation and instead learn from the market experience after the first-tier cities have restricted purchases, they will adjust their strategies more actively, cross the wait-and-see link and enter the price reduction promotion stage directly.
Chen Yunfeng, secretary-general of the China Real Estate Managersâ€™ Union, said that if the purchase restriction order is implemented in the second and third tier cities, it will be a severe blow to the small and medium-sized developers in these cities, and will also affect the sales of large developers in the second and third tier cities. These cities are expected to be affected. At least half of sales will be suppressed.
Wang Hongyu, general manager of Sanya Huamei Investment Co., Ltd., said that the restriction of purchases will be a major test for real estate developers, mainly in the second and third-tier cities. The industry may face an overall reshuffle. If we insist on regulating in this way, the stock room will continue to increase.
However, relevant Vanke sources stated that Vanke did not go to the second and third-tier cities for the first-tier cities to implement "restricted purchase orders." The layout in the second and third tier cities is the company's long-standing policy. The second-tier and third-tier cities have little influence on the company, and the company will make reasonable pricing based on the market.
The high-level response of Hong Kong's high-profile response to Kaisa Group, which has entered the second and third tier cities, is calm. Relevant person in charge explained that the companyâ€™s main residential buildings in the second and third tier cities have been dominated in recent years, and that the purchase needs are mainly local homeowners and first-time home buyers. The limited purchase orders have had limited impact on their sales. The company will not change the strategy of diversification. Although the purchase restriction will affect sales, it is believed that it will not be decisive and will continue to expand in second and third-tier cities.
Some experts pointed out that the fourth-tier cities with relatively large increases in housing prices are more worthy of attention. Since local per capita income is lower than those in second-tier and third-tier cities, the price-to-income ratio is higher. Taking the unaccepted Langfang City of Hebei Province as an example, when the â€œState of the Eighthâ€ was introduced in April last year, the average house price in the region was around 6,000 yuan per square meter, and now many real estate units in the region are close to ten thousand yuan per square meter, the main force for buying a house. It is a consumer squeezed out of the Beijing market. Prices in Panzhihua City in Sichuan Province have risen by nearly 1,000 yuan per square meter in the past six months. New commercial housing in Rudong County, Jiangsu Province has reached 8,500 yuan per square meter. In the newly-developed Dongqiao District of Ningde City, Fujian Province, the majority of real estate prices have reached 8,000 yuan per square meter, and some even as high as 10,000 yuan per square meter.
Analysts said that the overall bubble in the fourth-tier cities is not large, but the number of foreign investment houses in the coastal tourist cities in the fourth-tier cities is high, and the vacancy rate is high. There are many speculative demands for the four-tier cities around the first-tier cities to absorb squeeze-outs. Some rich mineral resources cities have high proportion of investment-purchasing homes, and these regions may be included in the scope of next-step purchase restrictions.
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