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â€œMarket analysts predict that the trend of the entire international shipping market will show a downward trend in the next three years, and even forecast that it will not exceed the 2010 level before 2020, and there will be no peak in 2007 and 2008. We basically analyze this kind of analysis. "Identified." Zhang Guangqin, president of the China Shipbuilding Industry Association, said recently: "We expect the situation for ship orders this year will be very severe. It is expected to decline by 20% to 30% for the whole year. The current decline in handheld orders has exceeded 5%."
The market is not optimistic. On the one hand, the number of global new ships is increasing sharply. On the other hand, the shipowners' willingness to sign new ships is reduced. At present, orders for new ships from global shipyards have shrunk to a new low in five years.
According to statistics from Clarkson Research of the United Kingdom, the total number of orders for new ships held by global shipyards is currently 6,918, which is lower than the 7,000 lows set in July 2006. For the first time in September 2008, the global shipyards were at the peak of shipping. The new ship orders held reached a high of 11,661. Compared with the peak period, the number of new ship orders currently held by shipyards has dropped by 40%. Although the total number of new orders has decreased overall, it is worth noting that orders for new vessels for ultra-large container ships and LNG ships are increasing year-on-year. In addition, from the perspective of new ships delivered this year, new capacity is mainly concentrated on dry bulk carriers.
According to the statistics from the China Shipbuilding Industry Association, from January to May 2011, the country's shipbuilding completed 25.07 million dwt, which was a year-on-year increase of 6%; and new orders for vessels received 18.11 million dwt, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; as of the end of May, Ship orders of 18.415 million dwt were down by 1.05% over the same period of last year, a drop of 6% from the end of 2010.
Zhang Guangqin said that a recent survey of some companies showed that the effective contracts in the hands of the companies can ensure that the factory's production lines are kept constant. The maintenance time is only about one year to one and a half years. "A lot of companies are actually running for the start of next year."
While the price of ships still continues to trend since the second half of last year, the phenomenon of companies competing for orders is more common, and the pricing of most ships tends to decline. On the whole, the current price of new ships is still at a low level since the crisis broke out.
Under this situation, some people in the industry are worried that the shipbuilding industry will regain the tide of grabbing singles in early 2010. At the beginning, as the price of the ship fell to a low point, some of the ship owners were able to use the bargain-hunter to bring the order volume up slightly. In particular, South Korean shipping companies have adopted a price reduction competition strategy, which accounts for 64% of the global newbuildings. However, South Koreaâ€™s four-month price cut strategy has brought a great impact on Chinaâ€™s shipbuilding industry.
It has been reported recently that Yangzijiang Shipbuilding has announced the signing of a letter of intent for eight 10,000 containers of container ships with a German company under the support of the National Development Bank with a credit line of US$1 billion. This news is equivalent to the Taiwan Shipbuilding Company's loss of more than one billion US dollars in orders. The reason is that the company has always been an old customer of the Taiwan Shipbuilding Company. In the past seven years, it has made a total of 24 container ships for Taiwan Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., which is equivalent to the two-year shipbuilding capacity of Taiwanese vessels. According to industry analysts, the German company originally used its own financing bank. After the financial tsunami, most European banks stopped providing shipbuilding financing. Therefore, the follow-up new ship was changed to require the shipbuilder to provide financing services. The Taiwan Shipbuilding Company was unable to obtain domestic financing. With financial support, this big customer was lost. Although this is not a real grab order, it is also worthwhile for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding to obtain this order in the current situation where the industry is having new orders.
Also worthy of congratulations was Rongsheng Heavy Industry. On June 26, the company announced the signing of 10 205,000-ton bulk carriers with well-known European shipowners. This is one of the few large orders in the country in the first half of the year.
Risk of Order Rongsheng Heavy Industry Chief Executive Chen Qiang said recently that the companyâ€™s target value for this year's orders is US$3 billion, and orders for the first quarter have reached US$400 million. The increase in orders for marine projects is more obvious. The company will focus on the development of this business in the future. He pointed out that Rongshengâ€™s policy is still to develop high-value-added businesses, and to achieve â€œbatch-levelâ€ during the period, thereby increasing revenue and operating efficiency.
While hand-held orders represent future sources of earnings, sometimes the results are not very definitive. A few days ago, related to Rongsheng Heavy Industry's â€œcostâ€ for the worldâ€™s largest single shipbuilding order won by â€œContradictionsâ€ in 2008 has caused industry discussions.
The cause is that the global mining giant, Vale, requested unilaterally a request for partial delay of delivery by Rongsheng Heavy Industry in 2011, which included the shipbuilding orders of 12 super-large ore carriers.
According to sources, 400,000 tons of large ore carriers were anchored at the Rugao base berth at the Rongsheng headquarters in Rugao in May.
According to industry analysts, only one 30,000-ton bulk carrier under construction will be launched every time a day is postponed on the slipway, which will enable the company to increase its customs fees, loan interest, exchange rate settlement, equipment use, etc. by nearly 10,000 yuan, plus The impact of other shipbuilding schedules under construction is greater. Delays in orders for more than a dozen ore vessels have caused delays in shipyards, ship spaces, and employment plans. This is a small sum of money.
In fact, as early as in 2008, people in the industry worried that Rongsheng Heavy Industry received a hot potato. Because China's shipbuilding industry was accompanied by a global shipping boom in 2001-2007. During this period of time, due to the upgrading of ships from Korea, Japan, and other countries, large numbers of low-value shipbuilding such as bulk carriers and oil tankers were transferred to China. In order to catch up with the pace of the market, a large number of private enterprises aggressively financed, and areas along the Yangtze River and the resources along the Yangtze River in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Sichuan Provinces have experienced a frenzied influx of private capital. The boss of Rongsheng Heavy Industry, Zhang Zhirong, is also At this point from the transformation of the real estate industry into the shipbuilding industry.
But since then, with the oversight of the state's means of regulation and the accompanying economic crisis, a large number of medium-sized boat companies lacking in technology have fallen because of the tight funding chain. Rongsheng Heavy Industry, which has been a leader in shipbuilding private enterprises in just a few years, has also failed to escape the enormous financial risk. It has dealt with the contract lawsuits issued by its long-funded upstream raw material suppliers. The state of craving for funds is maintained through financial leasing, so as to ensure steady progress in the performance of the company even when the economic cycle is weakened.
In 2008, Rongsheng Heavy Industry took orders for nearly 11 billion yuan of ore carriers. At that time, the industry had issued a warning. On the one hand, due to the overcapacity in China's shipbuilding industry as a whole, by 2011, this figure had reached 40%. On the other hand, the rise in raw materials brought about by inflation and the accompanying rise in the RMB exchange rate in 2010 will greatly reduce the company's profitability.
Since the production cycle of a ship is about two years, among them, marine steel accounts for about 30% to 35% of the cost. Since 2008, after experiencing a one-year low period, marine steel plates began to appear in the second half of 2010. Due to the rise in international iron ore prices, there has been a new round of significant rebound in marine steel. "The average market price rose by about 22%."
Although in May, the price of shipboards fell slightly, the data showed that as of the end of April this year, the plate price index for shipbuilding in the domestic market reached 141, which was 8.7 points higher than the beginning of the year; the average price reached 5,034 yuan/ton, compared with the beginning of the year. It rose 321 yuan/ton, or 6.8%.
In addition, the vast majority of shipbuilding contracts are basically settled in U.S. dollars while the costs are accounted for in RMB. The declining US dollar against the RMB exchange rate is a huge challenge. â€œRemote enterprises such as Rongsheng Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. are making reserves for the diversification of domestic orders, but there is no doubt that delayed delivery of overseas orders will affect the overall financial plans of the company.â€ said researcher at the China Shipbuilding Industry Economic Research Center. .
From this point of view, in the hungry market environment, flustered companies must also have careful consideration of the orders, instead of turning the olive branch into a â€œhot potatoâ€.
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