Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that in July, first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen still showed a year-on-year increase in prices, but the four cities witnessed a full-year increase in chain prices for the first time, with a ring index of 100. Among them, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are the first time since this year's regulation that the price increase has been zero.

According to the data, in July, of the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 14 cities with a decrease in the prices of new commercial housing, and 17 cities with flat prices. Sanya is the only city with a year-on-year decline. Compared with June, the number of cities with a month-on-month decrease in price and a flat rate in July increased by five. In the cities where the prices rose, the growth rate of the chain did not exceed 1.0%, and there were 15 cities with fewer increases than in June.

Compared with the same period of last year, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were one city with a decrease in the price of newly built commercial housing, and 26 cities with a drop in the number of increase. In July, there were 39 cities with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% or less.

In terms of sales of second-hand housing, compared with the previous month, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 22 cities with falling prices and 12 cities with flat cities. Compared with the same period of last year, there were 4 cities where second-hand housing prices fell. There were 28 cities where the number of gains fell, an increase of 4 from June.

Situation in Beijing: The two-month data for the new residential developments for the second consecutive month of increase show that the price of new commercial housing in Beijing fell for two consecutive months, from the month-on-month increase of 0.2% to July.

Specific data show that in July, new residential buildings in Beijing remained flat, up 1.9% year-on-year. Among them, the newly built commercial residential buildings were flat at 90 square meters, which was a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; 90-144 square meters of residential units decreased by 0.1% from the previous period and rose by 2.8% from the same period of last year; residential units above 144 square meters were flat, up 2.1% year-on-year.

From the data point of view, on a year-on-year basis, whether it is the price of new commercial housing or new housing prices, although rising every month, but the increase for seven consecutive months is narrowing, such as new housing prices rose by 9.1% from the same period in January , July gains fell back to 2.4%.

Analysis: First-tier cities saw a significant downward trend in housing prices Yesterday, Zhang Yue, chief analyst of Chain Home Real Estate, said that from the perspective of price data for all cities, the price of the four major first-tier cities has continued to soar in line, and the downward trend in prices will become more apparent. Although the price growth of the four first-tier cities is still relatively obvious, the price of housing in first-tier cities has continued to decline since the beginning of the year's macro-control. Developers and homebuyers began to adjust the initial stalemate, to start tentative price cuts, and then to proactively use prices. The exchange rate plays a certain role in the promotion of trading volume, and the willingness to lower prices will gradually increase. All the first-tier cities in July will stop rising, or will become the critical point for the new housing prices to fall. The turning point of the market will gradually form.

Zhang Dawei, director of Beijing Zhongyuan Market, believes that in July, first-tier cities have basically achieved some of the effects of regulation. Under the purchase restriction orders, the market has become more rational. However, the third-tier cities still have a significant increase, affecting the control effect of the country. The national property market is now in a critical period of volume decline to price change. At present, the property market has undergone fundamental changes compared to 2008, and it is not possible to use the property market once again to stimulate the economy.

The second-tier and third-tier cities’ purchases may be strictly based on data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. In July, the city’s housing prices rose by more than 5% year-on-year in 27 cities, of which 26 cities rose by more than 5% for three consecutive months. Judging from the year-on-year price increase, prices in 39 cities rose in July, of which 24 cities increased their gains.

Zhang Yue, chief analyst of Chain Home Real Estate, believes that the upward trend of prices in the second and third tier cities is still relatively clear. Although the upcoming purchases in the second and third tier cities have already been reported in early July, and some cities have begun to offer discounted sales in advance, 29 cities still continue to increase their prices based on the month-on-month rise in June, which may trigger strict restrictions on purchase policies. .

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