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This divergence of old and new house prices that occurred in the entire country in 2008 was renewed in the second half of 2011. The reverse price of a second-hand house is often considered to be an early sign of the overall market correction.
However, more industry views believe that the rigid demand of the domestic real estate market has still not been fully released, the overall condition of the developer's capital chain is good, and the overall turning point of the property market in the short term is still a small probability event.
When the price difference is approaching the maximum of 10,000 yuan, which has always been regarded as the domestic property market benchmark, Shenzhen, a second-hand house price hanging up as early as January this year began to appear, when the price difference between May and June when the largest difference of nearly 10,000 yuan per square meter.
Since Shenzhen implemented the property price limit policy in May, the phenomenon of inversion of a second-hand house price has become increasingly apparent. In June, the 3rd phase of the Shuimo Spring developed by Lemmon International entered the market with a price of 21,000 yuan per square meter. Currently, the second-hand release price of the second phase of the project has reached 25,000 yuan per square meter; ] Opened at an average price of 35,000 yuan/square meter, and the price of the same-hand second-hand house in this area has now reached 50,000 yuan/square meter.
Since June, the price of Shenzhen's new discs has been significantly lower than that of the neighboring second-hand housing prices. It also includes many items such as the latest news, price reviews, Hainer Times, and investment promotion [introduction].
Due to obvious price advantages, the sales rate of the above-mentioned properties on the opening day was more than 80%, and some projects even appeared on the â€œJapanese CD-ROMâ€. Among them, China Overseas Real Estate [introduction to the latest developments] and China Merchants Property [introduction to the latest developments] added some houses on the same day.
In terms of overall housing prices, the price of second-hand housing in Shenzhen has been higher than the first-hand house since this year. Centaline Property According to statistics from Shenzhen Planning and Land and Resources Commission's transaction system, the price difference of a second-hand house in Shenzhen has gradually expanded from January 2011 and peaked from May to June, and has declined in July.
Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou in the first-tier cities have also seen the price of a second-hand house hang upside down. According to Yahao agency statistics, there will be 26 projects in the Beijing property market in August. Among the 13 pure new projects, except for five cases that have not been announced yet, the prices of other projects are lower than the average price of second-hand houses in the surrounding area. The amplitude is between 10% and 15%.
According to the sampling statistics of more than 300 stores in Shanghai in the 21st century, Shanghai's first and second-hand house price inversions have intensified. Baoshan Yuepu, Jiading Nanxiang, and Songjiang New City have performed particularly well. Some regions have second-hand housing ratios. The unit price of new homes can exceed 2300 yuan to 3300 yuan per square meter.
Guangzhou Zengcheng, which implements the property price-reduction policy, has seen a more obvious upside down in second-hand house prices. The well-known market in the area, Country Garden Phoenix, has a unit price of more than the previous group. Cheaper than 1,000 yuan. At the same time, there are similar phenomena in the Jinshazhou section of Guangzhou, the North section of Guangzhou Avenue, and the Nanpu Island section of Panyu.
In addition, Tianjin, Chongqing, Wuhan, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Foshan, Wuxi and other major cities in the second and third tier cities and towns, since the second half have also appeared in different degrees of a second-hand housing prices upside down phenomenon, and presented a growing trend.
Property market inflection point remains controversial Xie Yifeng, Chairman of Guangdong Swords Land Real Estate Consultation Agency, said in an interview with the â€œFirst Financial Dailyâ€ that a city with an inverted price of second-hand housing will experience a large-scale increase in the second half of the year and early next year.
Xie Yifeng believes that by the end of August, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will announce the list of cities with restricted purchases and expansion. The tight market regulation will cause new supply and inventory in the market, and the declining market purchasing power will inevitably hinder the inventory. Developersâ€™ funds are getting more and more nervous, and in order to recover funds and complete sales, many new prices are bound to open lower.
The phenomenon of inversion of the price of a second-hand house once existed nationwide in 2008. That year, there was a first real sense of price correction and inflection point in the country.
However, most industry analysts believe that the use of a recent second-hand housing prices in a number of cities upside down to prove the advent of the property market inflection point is not yet adequate. According to Xie Yifeng, the phenomenon of inversion of the price of a second-hand house in the short term is not the signal of the turning point of the property market and the sharp drop in house prices, but is only a normal fluctuation of the market under the control of intervention.
The most direct interference factor is the property market price limit policy. At present, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Zengcheng, Langfang and its subordinate cities and counties have implemented limit pricing measures for the property market, of which Shenzhen requires monthly prices in some areas to grow by zero.
The housing price upside down caused by administrative intervention is not considered to have the universal significance of the market. In fact, the above-mentioned new disc pricing in Shenzhen, which is lower than the price of second-hand housing, is subject to the price limit policy. Many new discs are priced 10% to 40% lower than expected. In order to reduce costs and ensure profits, many developers have been forced to sell hardcover houses to rough houses, or to reduce the quality and matching of properties, resulting in a sharp drop in selling prices.
The direct effect of a second-hand housing price upside down is that the transactions in the second-hand housing market have been severely challenged. The number of second-hand housing transactions in many cities shrank sharply year-on-year, the number of brokers in second-hand housing agencies declined, and there were different degrees of closure of real estate agencies in Tianjin, Shenzhen, and Shanghai.
The loosening of new housing prices is expected to drive down the price of second-hand housing. Vanke executive secret secretary Tan Huajie said in an interview with reporters that by studying the historical rules of the Shenzhen property market, the price of second-hand housing will be greater than the price of first-hand housing prices. Li Yaozhi (microblogging), general manager of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Real Estate, predicts that second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen in the second half of the year are expected to drop by about 15%.
The upcoming "Jin 9 Silver Ten" is considered as the last chance for developers to sprint on sales throughout the year. Secretary-general of the China Economics Association Chen Yunfeng (microblogging) believes that a second-hand housing price upside down may allow this year's "Jin 9 Silver 10" trading volume to rebound, but the possibility of a sharp decline in housing prices is unlikely.
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