In September, there were signs of price adjustments such as price increases, foreign trade growth, and currency growth. The macro-control policies further achieved results. At this point, the real estate industry has once again become a "yak" under control, and some second- and third-tier cities do not fall in price, and residents' housing prices are still expected to rise strongly. Analysts believe that although the macro adjustment and control policies in the fourth quarter are likely to be fine-tuned, the real estate sector still needs strict regulation.

In April last year, the “National Ten Articles” was introduced, and there have been many positive changes in the real estate industry. Housing prices in the first-tier cities have stopped rising, and construction of affordable housing projects has started smoothly. However, in the real estate sector, while the old problems have not been resolved, some new problems have emerged and some problems have been exposed more clearly.

First, second and third-tier cities have become new drivers of rising housing prices. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 24 cities with newly-increased commercial housing in August, which are all second and third-tier cities.

Second, some local governments do not exercise sufficient control. Although relevant departments emphasized that it is necessary to continue to strictly implement differentiated housing credit, taxation policies, and home purchase restriction measures. However, since the second half of the year, only a few cities such as Taizhou and Luzhou have introduced new measures to limit purchases, and some cities have even tried to relax restrictions on purchases.

Once again, residents' housing prices are expected to remain strong. The central bank’s three-month depositors' questionnaire survey showed that 75.6% of residents believe that current housing prices are “too high and difficult to accept”, the highest since 2009. However, residents who intentionally chose “real estate investment” still accounted for 23.6% of the total, which ranked first in various investment methods. This means that once the regulatory policy has been loosened, the rebound in house prices is very likely.

From the demand point of view, commercial housing has obvious investment attributes. Apart from being influenced by objective factors such as residents' income and interest rates, housing prices also have irrational characteristics such as volatility and “buy up or not buy”, which makes real estate regulation less likely to generate new ones. The balance between quantity and price.

Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year increase in the sales area of ​​commercial housing across the country has been maintained at about 10%, which is mainly due to the increase in the supply of new commercial housing. However, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in most key cities is reflected in negative growth year-on-year, and the real estate market transaction climate has not rebounded. For the future trend of the property market, there currently appear to be three possibilities: First, developers "price change", with the housing prices fell, the volume will rebound; Second, developers "for space for time," the price stalemate turnover downturn. Under the background of the current rising prices of consumer goods, as time goes by, prices that have stopped rising will gradually reflect the relative price advantage; again, the regulation has been relaxed, house prices have rebounded, and home buyers are watching and entering the market under expectations of price increases. . Judging from the current macro situation, the third scenario is the least likely.

September CPI rose 6.1% year-on-year, falling for two consecutive months, and is expected to continue falling in October. In September, the equivalent ratio of broad money M2, new credit, and import and export growth also continued to fall. In the context of slower-than-expected economic recovery overseas and the elimination of signs of overheating domestic economic conditions, analysts believe that some economic sectors have ushered in the opportunity for moderately fine-tuned policies, such as small and medium-sized enterprises, foreign trade industries, etc., but the regulation is not fully effective yet. The real estate industry is one of the most unlikely industries to relax.

For some time in the future, it is unlikely that policies such as restrictions on purchases and loans will be relaxed. Although the degree of monetary tension may not continue to increase, the possibility that the real estate industry has received additional easing policy does not exist. Recently, news came out of Beijing and other banks to actively raise the loan interest rate for the first suite. In this context, house prices in the country are expected to be adjusted slightly by shock and differentiation, but the possibility of significant price cuts is still small. With the continued construction of affordable housing, and the advancement of relevant fiscal and taxation system reforms such as real estate tax, the long-term reform and development measures for the real estate industry are continuing to improve.

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