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China Housing: How do you determine the trend of the capital market next year?
Ba Shusong: Bank credit has always been the main source of traditional financing for the real estate industry. In 2011, the control over traditional financial channels was unprecedented, the housing market regulation led to falling housing prices, and developersâ€™ funds were difficult to withdraw. This combined with the high profits of the real estate industry. The short-term regulation and control of the expected funds for profit-oriented instinct, there will be a large number of real estate companies next year to provide financing opportunities and business. In fact, there are already some large companies that have joined forces to launch a real estate trust fund to seek greater capital benefits.
Housing in China: Many people expect that the credit market will be moderately loose next year. Will the adjustment of such financial policies bring good news to housing companies?
Ba Shusong: Real estate companies have pushed up interest rates in private financing markets based on expectations of high returns in the future, and squeezed out the funding needs of the manufacturing sector. If the monetary policy is significantly relaxed, new funds are more likely to emerge. Yu Liâ€™s instinct is re-emerged into the real estate business, and it is still difficult for SMEs to support. Therefore, the moderate relaxation of credit policy must be targeted, mainly for manufacturing companies with real financing difficulties, and must strictly prevent the disguised capital from flowing into the real estate industry. Judging from the overall trend, the first and second quarters of next year will continue to fall in inertia. The third and fourth quarters will show modest rises. Therefore, the former low level and the latter high level will be the next big pattern.
China Housing: Will the central bank continue to control real estate credit next year? Zhang Hong: We believe that it is difficult to continue to insist on the trend of real estate credit in the future and that it is more likely to relax in 2012. The reasons are as follows: From the current real estate credit growth data, the growth rate has been close to and below the 2008 financial crisis. The tight liquidity is one of the core reasons for the current market inflection point. It is worth noting that credit is used as a control policy. After a real deep-tuning of the market, the departure of social financing such as trusts and funds will trigger the rapid depletion of the liquidity of the real estate industry.
China's housing: In the current situation, has the capital chain of housing enterprises reached the most intense moment?
Zhang Hong: The real estate capital chain has not really reached a dangerous level. After the financial crisis in 2008, it took nearly a year for real estate companies to evolve from de-stocking rates to increase investment, followed by more than two years of â€œhigh capacityâ€ from early 2009 to early 2011, but the real industry has contracted for only half a year. In terms of cold resistance, most housing enterprises are stronger than the local government and economic fundamentals.
China Housing: 2011 is undoubtedly a remarkable year for the trust industry. But at present, the trust industry can no longer enjoy the same benefits as in the past. How will the trust industry change in the future?
Zhang Hong: Behind the rapid development relying on Yinxin cooperation and real estate trust, it is the fact that the overall product innovation capability of the trust industry has declined. The lack of real asset management capabilities is precisely the fault of the rapid development of the trust industry. After the "Trust Company's Net Capital Management Measures" and "Notice on Regulating the Relevant Issues concerning the Trust Products Marketing" were issued, the trust companies are striving to develop products such as fund-type products to transform their own business models and profit models. Of course, this change has a prerequisite for vigorously improving its own asset management capabilities.
If we say that 2011 is a year for trust companies to explore new business, then in the context of leveraged funding costs and gradual strengthening of the industry's regulatory environment, 2012 will be the first year of the transition of trust companies.
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