On Monday (January 30) in the Asian market, the US crude oil futures for March of NYMEX oscillated down and fell below US$99.00 per barrel. The Canadian dollar was lower due to this effect, USD/CAD rebounded slightly, and was traded around 1.0030. Below the 20-day moving average, short-term moving average indicators are bearish.

The Canadian Ministry of Finance announced on Friday (January 27) that Canada’s budget deficit in November last year narrowed to C$1.9 billion from C$4.5 billion in the same period last year, slightly supporting the stronger Canadian dollar.

However, Iran’s oil minister Rostam Gassem stated recently that Iran “will soon” stop supplying oil to certain European countries, which makes crude oil prices turbulent and the trend of the Canadian dollar is repeated.

A high-level delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) left for Vienna on Saturday (January 28) for a three-day visit to Iran to seek clarification of the controversial issue in the Iranian nuclear program. International crude oil is likely to fluctuate.

Analysts pointed out that Iran currently exports about 2.6 million barrels of crude oil a day. The EU has imported about 500,000 barrels of crude oil from Iran on a daily basis. Among them, Greece, Italy, and Spain are the countries with the largest import of Iranian oil among EU member states. If Iran refuses to supply oil to the European Union, it will inevitably cause the price of crude oil to soar, which will make the Eurozone economy worse and worsen the debt crisis in Europe more or less.

It is expected that if there are no major events in the short term, the Canadian dollar will continue to follow international crude oil ups and downs.

Technically, USD/CAD fell to 0.9980 level in the second half of last week, but then stabilized and rebounded above the 200-day moving average. Currently, the exchange rate rebounded to test the 5-day moving average. The daily chart stochastics have bottomed out. In Bollinger Bands, the exchange rate is also supported on the lower track, and there may be a short-term or rebound demand.

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